It's Been A While

Since I've written anything. I have been busy with a lot things, such as college applications (most obviously), but also homework and general procrastination. Very, very busy, so much so that I missed the last day to post in October and must now start in November.

What a tragedy.

Anyway, since I have fuzzy memory I will recount things in reverse order. Bear with me as we travel back in warped time.

Tuesday, Nov. 2nd:


Election day! Which means three things: a) no school tomorrow; b) going over to Tea's house to bake donuts with Yuma; and c) checking out how accurate Nate Silver's predictions are. Excitement levels in that order. My mom had no idea there was no school tomorrow, so I wonder what would have happened if I went out at 6:50 and walked to the library and spent my day there? Oh well, she knows now, so that's not possible.

Also, I am very excited to see how baked donuts will look like. And taste like, too. I am so glad I subscribed to, uh... around 109293874 food blogs while I was working on my college essays (i.e. procrastinating), because I would never have found the recipe without it.

Then, of course, actual election results! That, too, is exciting, but I guess it's not as exciting as listening to PM-wannabes dissing each other in French and gluing their hands into their pockets. But I suppose that is a purely Canadian thing.

Monday, Nov. 1st:


ED/EA applications are due today, and guess what? I don't have to worry about them, because I finished them! Yay! Other than that, the day went by fairly boringly. Oh, right, I fell asleep in French today, which was bad, because I was in the middle of a listening test. Luckily, I got through the first trial effectively, and I couldn't understand most of it anyway, so I guess a second listen-through wouldn't have helped much.

But I told my partner-in-crime-in-the-business-of-staying-up-late that I should probably set a bedtime, and he suggested, "11pm?"

Then I told him that I fell asleep in class, so he immediately changed it to 9pm.

Haha. As if. I barely get any work done before 9pm. But I do need to get to bed earlier, and preferably not spend half an hour trying to say "goodbye" in Welsh. Or Portuguese. Or Macedonian. Anyway, now we've set it at around 10-11pmish, which is a good time, I suppose. If only I can remember that, along with the fact that I need to bring lunch money (and money I owe Tea).

Also, NaNoWriMo is starting today! Anyone interested in starting a full-fledged novel (or, really, does anyone have the time to do that)?

Sunday, Oct. 31st:


Halloween! My parents and I went out to buy a printer/fax/scanner/copier/whatever-else-is-there machine. We went to Best Buy, and once there, my mom told me, "Can you look for some whiteout?"

"Mom, we're at Best Buy. Why would there be whiteout here?"

"Why not?" My mom said. "I'm sure they have some."

No, mom, they don't. I asked the guy at the front desk anyway, and he said he has never seen whiteout in the store. Ever.

Then I went to check out the iPads, and started playing Plants vs. Zombies, which is my favorite game of all iPad games. My dad came over and checked out the MacBook Pro to the side. I must say, I'm not a fan. Seriously, Apple. You were great a couple years ago with all those really colorful computers, but these days you're all white and black and silver. So monochrome. Even shuffles have color. Why not laptops?

Anyway, we also checked out several Sony laptops, and we wanted to see a few Lenovo ones too, but Best Buy didn't have any. Oh well. I'm hoping to get a new laptop soon, if only because I'm really, really tired of all the white (yeah, this laptop's white too) and I want to be able to bring it in to school to work on stuff.

Saturday, Oct. 30th:


We (my parents and I) went to the border early this morning (read: we left at around midnight) to sort out our visas, once again. It was fairly successful, and I even finished a lot of my reading/listening homework. Very productive. Then we came back and went to a Chinese supermarket in West Hartford, where I discovered supermarket-porn.

Well, okay, not really porn, but they were selling the herbal version of Viagra, except they call it deer's tail, so I had no idea what it was, and when I looked at the pictures they showed people in very... fascinating positions.

Ahem. Yeah.

When I came home I worked on my Chicago app, and I finished very late into the night (around 9pm, I believe). But Cammie's birthday/Halloween party was today, so I went over and shared in the movie-watching (Moulin Rouge), gossip-sharing fun with everyone else there.

Where, yes, major stuff were revealed, but at least on this blog that is as far as I'll go with it.

And in the morning (which is technically the next day, but oh well) there was chocolate chip pancakes with whipped cream! Yay!

Monday, Oct. 25th to Friday, Oct. 29th:


I don't remember what happened here, except for a haze of college apps and late-night chatting with Yuma and maybe other things, such as, oh, Clay repeatedly asking Yuma and me whether we were going to frisbee. I got the message on Wednesday, thank you very much. I didn't really need the reminders on Thursday and Friday as well. But I think I'm just snappy because I am so exhausted by college apps and not sleeping nearly enough.

But that is all I remember, and all I can recall right now. Time to do homework and maybe, maybe, catching up on some sleep.

Highlights of the 2010 UK Elections

Blame 538.com for my addiction to this year's UK elections. I hadn't really cared (aside from interest in some of the lesser-known parties) until the Nerdfights between Nate Silver and PoliticsHome. But now that I am fully interested (purely numbers-wise, as a fellow amateur statistician, if I can call myself that), I have been following the polls as they come in, one by one, ever since 10:00PM, BST (when the polls closed).

Although this isn't nearly a timely, updated post, it is my experience of the elections, and should serve as something, if only to inform those who utterly have not cared about the elections up until they read this. You can only be an expert (ha, expert, yeah right) to a certain extent.

• The Sunderlands apparently have a tradition of being the first to reveal their numbers (like that NH county whose name I can't remember), and this year, they've kept with tradition, both in speed and results. All three Sunderlands (the first three out and thus most analyzed) voted Labour, despite a huge increase in Conservative votes.
• BBC exit polls have Conservative barely out of majority, and Liberal Democrats losing seats—even though the LibDem's were predicted to gain seats this election. Well, LibDems remind me of the NDPs in Canada (very similar political party environment, especially regional parties, such as the Bloc Québecois, resemble the Scottish and Northern Ireland parties), so I'm not too surprised they've been losing seats, especially with a possible Conservative majority. But my opinion's probably naive.
• Who's the guy behind Gordon Brown during his speech? I don't have a link right now, because I'm following rolling blogs that keep updating, but if you Google Gordon Brown, I'll bet he'll show up. You know, the guy in the sunglasses, who's making that fist-motion, and supposedly belongs to the "Land is Power" party? He got 57 votes, so maybe (if those votes aren't just his family and friends) he's celebrating.
• With the polls and numbers in so far, Nate's model is leading the predictions against the uniform swing model. I haven't delved deep enough to figure out why Nate's model works (uniform swing is much easier to understand, apparently, and I haven't entirely gotten that). Although Nate's model is significantly worse when minority parties (e.g. SNP, DUP, and such) are contenders, which may be a result of his being used to American elections, which are focused primarily on a few (more like, two) parties, rather than a whole range of them, each with their areas of strength.
• Students forced to line up in longer lines while "local residents" vote first? One of a few scandals of the night (including keeping polls open after the deadline), and definitely going to be a problem. Check out the Facebook group. Some are calling for a re-election, which is very unlikely, but if the results are close, things may get ugly. Fast.
• And of course, exit polls once again prove to be rather informative (the last one, the 2005 UK election exit poll conducted by BBC as well, predicted the Labour majority accurately), as LibDems are faring horridly compared to expectations. Not my expectations, I'll say. But I just really care about whether the Nate-model or the uniform-swing-model will prevail, so I never really had expectations to begin with.
• "3:04 AM. Cameron's body language suggested a touch of disappointment."—538.com
• "0254 A clearly shocked Lembit Opik tries to explain his defeat, but the symbolism of the backdrop - a deserted hall - says so much more about tonight's Lib Dem collapse."—Telegraph
• BBC has been having technical difficulties earlier in the evening, with strange graphics, malfunctioning equipment ("Can I just kick this thing?" I'll have to find the specific quote later), and a boat party filled with celebrities and political pundits that plunged into a blackout halfway through.
• Conservative minority (exit poll predictions) may be disastrous for the stock market, as it will definitely drop due to the Greece bankruptcy and the DOW's near 1000 point drop (before rebounding a bit), and a hung government most likely won't get anything done anytime soon. Nate's predicting Conservative majority (by 10+ seats) based on the exit poll and a minority (by 10+ seats as well) based on no exit poll data. Someone tell me how this makes any sense.
• I've been spending way too much time on this, including looking at the funny pictures (Lembit Opik especially, and maybe the wood-chopping PM, but nothing—and I mean nothing in this election so far—tops the Man In Sunglasses behind Gordon Brown). Telegraph election maps either don't update as often as BBC's, or BBC is making false/early projections, as the Telegraph pointed out earlier. Who knows. I just know I should go to sleep now.
• Latest at 10:20PM—BBC: Con. 92, Lab. 92, Lib. 14 (a tie); and Telegraph: Con. 70, Lab. 74, Lib. 9, Others 26 (includes Sinn Fein, which I had thought was the name of an MP before learning that was a party—just goes to show my amateurishness in all of this, doesn't it?). This may end up like a Canadian government: nobody wants a Conservative majority, but they don't want the Liberals to win, so they vote for a Conservative minority with NDP getting some city (working class) votes and Bloc Québecois, well, you know where they win. They have the strangest ties too, all color-coordinated to show party support.
• SLEEP. Will check results later (in the morning, maybe). Tea said I should befriend Andy, who is also very interested in these elections. I hope he's in it for the math, because then he can explain the swing theories to me.
• THE NEXT DAY. (Yeah, that deserves a bullet point all to itself.)
• 538 report: out of 15 districts (at the time, no later data are provided), Nate's method won 7, and uniform swing won 8. Conducting a confidence interval on proportions (conditions are not quite met so we'll have to use a Wilson's adjustment, but I'm using my calculator so I'll assume it does that automatically), Nate's method was right about 47% of the time, with a (gasp) 21% error (this is why you should always have a large sample size when possible). But the same goes for uniform swing as well, so neither one really wins. That's disappointing.
• "4.19am Douglas Murray writes: 'Labour losses, Lib Dems failing to live up to any hype and the Conservatives failing to make gains they should have walked through. It looks like we the people have turned out in record numbers to punish the major parties equally. And, judging from Scotland, the minority parties too. Fun for the time being but this is going to spell mayhem over the coming days.'"—Telegraph
• Imagine losing by 176 votes (as Evan Harris, who got over 23,000 votes but still 176 less than the oppsition, experienced). That would really, really suck.
• "12.12pm (WH) A reader emails me the full Boris Johnson Paxman exchange (11.41am), saying it has been the highlight so far today.
  
  

  Boris: “I think if our new government is to be a Wall’s sausage, the meat of that sausage should be Conservatism. Of course there will be plenty of other bits and pieces in there like bread and what have you, but the meat should be the Conservatives.”

  Paxman: “Will it be a chipolata or Cumberland sausage?”

  Boris: “Enough of this gastronomic metaphor, I have tired of it.”

            Paxman: “But you started it!”"—Telegraph
• "Deal or No Deal" is chosen over Nick Clegg (LibDem leader). Adding insult to injury. (Here's the link.)
• Hung government made official, because apparently the UK can't deal with a minority government for some reason. Or maybe they just don't like to deal with one (lots of political bickering, that's for sure, and if Clegg doesn't form an agreement with the Tories, and David Cameron decides on a Tory minority, then any major decision in Westminster could become a nightmare—like Obama's healthcare bill debate, except possibly worse, since Obama at least had a Democrat majority). Business big-shots not liking this one bit—but this doesn't affect me directly in any way, except perhaps the possible spike in gold and silver prices after a loss of confidence in stocks and currency, which would be harsh on our jewelry club budget.
• A 14-year-old boy voted in Wyre and Preston North. What? How? You'd think a national election would be better regulated than that. Even convenience stores do a better job of monitoring who comes in through the doors.
• Here's the kicker: BBC's exit polls predicted a Tory minority of 307 seats, Labour with 255, and LibDems with 59. Real results? Conservative 305, Labour 258, and LibDem 57. Nate predicted 312/204/103, and PoliticsHome (since I haven't followed them consistently, I have two dates up for comparison) has 291/230/97 on May 4th and 307/229/82 on May 6th (although perhaps after the exit poll was released, because British law forbids any information regarding polls released during voting time from 7am to 10pm to prevent bias—I'll have to check later). Looks like that sample size of 18,000 worked out really well for the BBC for yet another year (much to the dismay of the Telegraph, which had been taunting the BBC's stubbornness in clinging onto its exit poll).

CONCLUSION:

Britain may very well be headed towards a minority government or a Tory-Lib coalition (with numerous experts prediction a re-election within a year, but hey, these are probably the same—I can't voucher for sure because all of their names blended into one for me, the usually non-political girl—experts who doubted that the Liberal Democrats would do so pathetically, so I would take their words with an idiomatic grain of salt).

On the front of statistics (why I'm doing this in the first place), all polls before the exit poll were off. Mostly because of overly optimistic LibDem projections, but also many thought a Conservative majority might be possible. Telephone polls were generally more accurate than Internet polls. And the most pressing issue? There's no clear winner in the Nerdfight, sadly. We're better off with BBC and its exit poll predicting the UK's future for those who wish not to stay up late (like David Dimbleby) and watch the events unfold. But really, it was so much more fun to see the election map being filled out one by one, and to watch the comments as they rolled in after each astounding (or not so astounding, in the safe seats) win.

Let's hope everything works out just fine for Britain. Of course, I can't wait for the 2012 presidential elections (hopefully by then I will fully understand the swing projection mechanism). I'd say I'm interested in it from a purely statistical standpoint, but that would be untruthful. With the US elections, I can also apply everything I've learned in US history. Imagine, math and social studies!


Sources where I got my information is as follows (and some interesting links to check out):
FiveThirtyEight: Election Night Liveblog Part 1 Part 2 Poll Analysis
The Telegraph: General Election 2010 Liveblog Election Map What's a Hung Parliament
(The General Election link above is updated daily—until they choose not to update it anymore—and archives are at the bottom of the post, but before the comments. I predominately used the May 6th/7th post, which is no longer the one displayed on the first page.)
BBC: Election 2010 Live Coverage Results Swingometer
(Try the Swing-o-meter. It's so amazingly fun I am kind of sad the US elections aren't quite the same as the UK elections. Swings don't really work as well here. Pity.)


UPDATE(s):

"2054 Among the thousands of disappointed candidates few could claim to have been dealt a harsher hand by fate than Bob Peck, a Conservative councillor in Great Yarmouth. When he and Labour rival Charlie Marsden were tied on 1,034 votes each in his Yarmouth North ward, a returning officer settled the stalemate asking each to draw cards from a pack. Mr Peck lost his seat."—Telegraph

Some other UK newspaper headlines (and sources)—

The Independent: Big two woo kingmaker Clegg, "Britain was today plunged into uncertainty over its future government, as both Labour and the Conservatives competed for the support of the Liberal Democrats to form an administration."
The Sun: Cam to Clegg: Let's do a deal/Shameless PM's still clinging on, "Mr Clegg had suffered one of the worst nights of his political life yesterday - but STILL woke holding Britain's future in the palm of his hand."
The Daily Mail (which Tea does not completely trust): Now for the shabby deals: As the Election descends into shambles, Cameron and Brown battle for crushed Clegg's support, "The most tumultuous election anyone could remember ended in a weekend of 1970s-style horse-trading between the parties and a dangerous period of uncertainty. David Cameron made an astonishing power-sharing offer to the Liberal Democrats, while Mr Brown shamelessly refused to budge as PM after leading Labour to its worst drubbing since 1983."
Washington Post (all-American, and so no headlines, but a small, almost hidden Opinions page): An electoral earthquake, "Dionne: In Great Britain, economic change crushed old political strategies on the left and right."

Yeah, I'll stop now. Much more interesting things (such as our trip outdoors in calc) are at stake here, now that Clegg (of all people) is now the one to decide Britain's future. It's a lose-lose situation for him (namely, Clegg goes Tory, he gets sidelined; Clegg goes Labour, chance of re-election with more people voting for the two main parties), and quite the lose-lose situation for the country (namely, despite voting for "change," it all depends on one man and his party's politics).

Besides, you've got to follow it as it unrolls to really experience the fun.

More Adventures (in Chile) + Panic IRL

This was long overdue but necessary in the grand scheme of life this trip. Therefore, it is here, and I will be off to do my homework ("Gasp!") because I just checked the schedule and the CALC FINAL (-cue screaming sound effects-) is in two weeks. (±Math run-offs, AIME's, and an assortment of other things.) Therefore, I probably won't be getting any homework done, and so I might as well post this now so I don't get too distracted.


ALSO YOU GUYS: Ignore tenses in this thing. I don't know what land I'm in, but this land's Laws decree that normal tense situations do not apply here. That, or I'm writing about past/present/future at the same time, so I'm really, really confused.


Today is the first day of our (Gretchie has joined my trip) adventures! After an entire day of packing, we have decided that we have EVERYTHING we could possibly need that we can think of right now. So, relying upon our trusty RANDOM.ORG random coordinates generator, we have decided to travel to the most coveted—

Chile!

But first things first. We need a picture of Gretchie since she's coming along as well.

After quite some time of fiddling with paint the camera once again, here is a picture of Gretch (to the right). (A/N: This picture did not exist prior to this post; however, due to unfortunate media leakage, this picture is now old news and therefore lacks the "wow" factor it was supposed to bring.)

Great, now we can begin!

So, since we're in the middle of nowhere not anywhere near Chile, I ordered tickets from TravelWithUsJerk.com (see bottom of page). They came in the mail yesterday, while we were still packing, and boy, were we excited! I literally jumped up and down until I got tired and had to stop.


Gretchie added a water filter, cards, a Spanish-English dictionary, a Swiss army knife, eating utensils, and walkie-talkies to her bag. I've also last-minutely added a small, hand-held mirror, just in case we're plane-wrecked in the middle of the ocean and we need to flash Morse code signals at planes to make them notice us.


Anyway, at 9:30AM, we decided that we had everything. With a few final checks (making sure we locked the doors and windows and said a teary farewell to our friends for the hour day week possibly eternity), we were ready to depart!

The closest international airport is JFK, and it's a very, very far distance away (anything that can't be tackled reasonably by foot is a very far distance for me), so naturally we rode a taxi! I love yellow taxis—they make me feel happy on the inside, especially if it's raining outside and the water puddles make the road all reflection-y when the yellow taxis drive by.


The ride to the airport was pretty fun, and when we got to the airport, we still had plenty of time left (the plane was scheduled to leave at 2PM—haha, 2PM—and we arrived at 11AM). So we did what normal people do when they're about to embark on a round-the-world voyage.


We jumped up and down (figuratively for Gretchie and literally for me) and ooh'd and ahh'd over everything we saw. Well, of course, we had to get our boarding pass first, go through numerous layers of customs (tricky—I never did like customs), and find our waiting room. Once we got there, however, the realization that the trip was finally happening made both of us giddy. I pulled out my laptop and we went over the itinerary for the next few days, which I will outline below in order to pacify you because the actual trip writing may take a long time to solidify give you an idea of what is to come:

• Day 1: Arrive at Santiago (the capital of Chile and where the major International airport is located), look around, check into a hotel, scream, "WE'RE IN CHILE!!!" (Preferably in Spanish, although that is a feat only Gretchie can accomplish right now.)
• Day 2: Continue tour of Santiago (I've heard that they have amazing food there), in the afternoon take a plane to Atacama Desert and stay the night there.
• Day 3-6: Explore Atacama. Highlights: museums, geysers, beautiful views, adobe hotels! On the last day, take a plane to Easter Island.
• Day 7-11: Explore Easter Island. (More) highlights: Moai (those stone faces Easter Island is famous for), volcanic craters, scuba diving/snorkeling. On the last day/afternoon, take a plane back to Santiago.
• Day 12: Rest a bit, check any really good tourist attractions (or restaurants), then depart for our next destination (undecided as of yet).

So, there you have it! Almost two weeks of fun in Chile, or at least we hope it will be. Alas, time flies when you're rechecking over itineraries (or maybe just when you're having fun in general), and by the time we finished going over the details and planning what we will do after we get off the plane, it was about time to board our plane.


Here's a picture of the plane we're going to board:


Isn't it pretty?


This is a plane owned by Lan Chile Airlines, the major airline company in Chile. It's also the only plane that travels to Easter Island, which is where we're going to go later. (How this hasn't directly attributed to grossly unreasonable fares, I have no idea, but I assume I'll know next year with a year of econ under my figurative belt.)

I found some random picture online took a picture of the landscape as we were about to depart. Can you believe it? We're going to leave the country soon, and then our continent!


South America, here we come!


Of course, for the entire flight, Gretchie and I watched this strange documentary about glaciers in Greenland. I don't really remember much of it, because I was more focused on the beautiful background music they played while showing the films of the glaciers.


It takes around nine hours to go by plane from NYC to Chile, and so by the time we arrived, it was a staggeringly late 11PM by our watches. However, by the Chilean time zone (UTC-04), it was already midnight. Gretchie and I were both pretty tired by now, so our first priority was to find a hotel and rest for the night.


(I think we'll have to push back our schedule for a day, because rest is very, very important and visiting Santiago is also very, very important, and we have plenty of time to spare anyway.)


Gretchie took some pictures of the night-time Santiago as we rode in our taxi and headed toward our hotel. Here's one that we both really liked:

After much sight-seeing through the streets of Santiago, we arrived at our hotel which is not named because I have been too lazy to actually find one, duh. Tired as we were, we did not forget to take a picture of our room. So, here it is, and we'll update infinitely later tomorrow on how our first actual day in Santiago goes!

OOH (see earlier posts): 


We (both of Mr. Coffee's AP chem classes) got back our acid/base equilibrium test today—or, at least, the multiple choice part. The "bell curve" for test score distributions were one 95+ (Bryant, most likely, as this spot is usually reserved for him), a small cluster of 90+, a huge cluster of 80+ (including 85+), pitifully few in the 70+ (including 75+), and another huge cluster at or below 65+.


On the bright side, this unit is so dubbed, "If you can survive this, you can do anything." So, seeing as I survived the test (with lots of freebie points from Mr. Coffee because he messed up on several questions to help), I must be able to do anything!


(Well, anything except my research paper, it seems, because I almost failed that, and the only reason I didn't fail was because I had clear sentences and good language usage, so the next two weeks will be frantic as I basically rewrite my entire paper.)


I am also awaiting my free response for this unit, which I have my doubts in because I didn't (unlike Bryant and Nyx and basically everyone else who was sane) do any of the AP problems on College Board. Well. On the even brighter side, the next unit is relatively easier (although it also seems that easier units are the ones I perform worse on in tests), so everything should be fine until I start panicking about the calc finals.


Which, if the introduction paragraph haven't warned you yet, CALC FINALS! MAY 5TH IS APPROACHING! APRIL 12TH IS APPROACHING! Ahem. Right.


Our class has yet to panic, it appears, because we spent today discussing what the "ç" was called ("A cedilla." "Oh, Ginny, can you teach me French?") and whether the cardioid looked like a "butt." Dino also spent considerable time persuading Mrs. James to hit the "print" button on the Smartboard so he could go grab a copy of the calc notes he forgot to print out ("We were supposed to bring 10.6? No one told me that!") while Jay used "going to the bathroom" as an excuse to print out a copy of the notes himself but forgot to print out an extra set for Dino.


Not that I did anything in any of my other classes. We had a sub for physics, and Camel, lamenting that the $10 he spent on buying Monty Python was wasted because he couldn't open the file, used his laptop to go on Youtube to watch more Monty Python. I took this time to use an extremely long yard-stick (meter-stick, actually, and they can't be extremely long because they're supposed to be one meter long, but that's not the point) to draw scatterplots for stat. Nevertheless, it wasn't necessary, it seemed, because Mrs. MacDonald wasn't here either, and we had another sub (who suspiciously looked like the sub we had for physics, but I'm bad at recognizing people so I'm not sure). Matt and I worked on another sudoku puzzle, and then later on we (mostly me) worked on some math packets. I can say now with 70% confidence that I can tackle most of the round 1 questions, half of the round 2 questions, and maybe half of the round 3 questions.


Oh, I'm doomed.


But wait, there's more! If you call NOW AIME is coming up, Wednesday. I still have to ask Tybalt what room I'm supposed to be in, and I still have to go over at least some of the problems to see what they're like and what my probability of failing is (very high, although I shall try a Nate Silver-esque approach and conduct some research based on past problem performance).


So. Anyway. Homework.


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